US Solar PV Market 2026 - 11.4 GW Q2 Installations Surge 45% as Tax Credits, Tariffs and Domestic Manufacturing Reshape the Market

The US solar PV market encompasses the deployment, manufacturing and financing of solar photovoltaic power across utility-scale, residential, commercial and community segments. Makreo Research estimates that the market represents approximately 89% of North America's cumulative solar PV capacity, which reached around 235.1 GW at the end of 2025, with the United States contributing approximately 209.5 GW, placing the country among the world's largest solar markets.

The United States added 11.4 GW of solar capacity in Q2 2026, marking a 45% year-on-year increase and a 43% quarter-on-quarter rebound, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association. The surge was primarily driven by utility-scale developers securing federal tax credits ahead of the 4 July 2026 begin-construction deadline under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Solar and storage together represented 70% of new US generating capacity during the first half of 2026.

For developers, manufacturers, investors and corporate energy buyers, the market signal is clear - activity has not slowed but compressed. The phase-out of tax credits, Federal Communications Commission restrictions on foreign-made inverters and Section 232 tariffs taking effect on 4 December 2026 are simultaneously reshaping project economics, supply chains and competitive positioning. This analysis examines the latest data and its implications for the US and global solar outlook through 2030.

Why Did US Solar Installations Surge 45% in Q2 2026?

The principal driver of the second-quarter surge was the tax credit phase-out under OBBBA rather than organic demand growth. Projects that commenced construction by 4 July 2026 retain access to the 30% Investment Tax Credit and Production Tax Credit, provided they are placed in service within four calendar years. Developers consequently accelerated the mobilisation of safe-harboured project pipelines.

Utility-scale solar added 9.6 GW, up 61% year on year, accounting for the overwhelming majority of the 11.4 GW total. SEIA reports that operating US solar capacity has reached 299.4 GW, sufficient to power approximately 50 million homes, while solar alone accounted for 45% of new generating capacity during the first half of 2026.

Deployment remained concentrated across the Sun Belt and selected Midwestern markets, with Texas adding 1.7 GW, Arizona 1.4 GW and Michigan 0.9 GW. Utility-scale contracting reached 4.9 GW in Q2, while data and technology companies represented most new offtake agreements, according to Solar Power World reporting based on SEIA data.

Distributed Segments Tell a Different Story

The headline market surge concealed a two-speed market. Residential installations declined 12% year on year to 995 MW, the segment's lowest quarterly level in five years, following the expiry of the Section 25D residential credit at the end of 2025. Commercial solar increased 11% year on year to 638 MW, supported by California's remaining Net Energy Metering 2.0 pipeline, with the state contributing 256 MW. Community solar declined 14% year on year to 231 MW, although Illinois installed 112 MW, its strongest second quarter on record, surpassing New York as community solar permits declined sharply in the state.

What Does the Solar Tax Credit Deadline Mean for Developers?

The 4 July deadline has passed, and its implications will shape the market structure over the next four years. SEIA estimates that a safe-harboured utility-scale pipeline of 216 GW to 240 GW was established before the deadline, sufficient to support installations through 2030 even after attrition. Projects that commenced construction before 4 July 2026 must be placed in service by 31 December 2029 under the standard four-year window, while projects initiated after the deadline face a substantially tighter placed-in-service deadline of 31 December 2027 to retain any credit eligibility.

This creates a bifurcated market. The safe-harboured cohort benefits from protected economics and is expected to dominate installations through 2028, while the post-deadline cohort must compress development timelines, interconnection queues and financing into 18 months or proceed without federal support. Residential and commercial channels face a parallel transition, with installers moving from cash and loan sales towards third-party ownership and lease structures that can continue accessing credits through Section 48E.

How Is the FCC Inverter Ban Reshaping Project Procurement?

On 28 July 2026, the FCC's Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau added foreign-produced power inverters to its Covered List on national security grounds, preventing new equipment authorisations for unapproved foreign models. The determination targets networked inverters with remote communications and firmware-update capabilities. Previously authorised models remain eligible for import and sale, while a conditional approval pathway is available through the Department of Homeland Security and Department of Defense for manufacturers committing to US assembly. The action also extends to battery energy storage system equipment, and the House Republican Study Committee welcomed the measure.

The structural implication is significant. Department of Energy data from 2020, cited in the FCC determination, indicate that US-headquartered manufacturers supplied only about 7% of US inverter shipments, a gap that cannot be addressed quickly. Most near-term projects rely on previously authorised models and face limited disruption, but hardware refreshes requiring a new FCC grant are now blocked unless assembled domestically.

For asset managers, the ban introduces a second-order risk - replacing a foreign inverter with a compliant domestic model can constitute a material modification under standard interconnection rules, potentially returning the project to the engineering re-study queue. Procurement strategy, rather than panel pricing, is increasingly becoming the binding constraint on project timelines.

What Do the Section 232 Polysilicon Tariffs Change for Solar Supply Chains?

On 6 August 2026, the President issued a Section 232 proclamation imposing a 15% ad valorem tariff on polysilicon derivative products, including ingots, wafers, cells and modules, from 4 December 2026. Minimum import prices are enforced through specific tariffs of USD 21 per kilogram for polysilicon, USD 100 per kilogram for ingots and wafers, USD 0.22 per watt for cells and USD 0.38 per watt for modules, according to White & Case, Wiley and Hunton.

The action follows the expiry in February 2026 of the Section 201 safeguard, which had operated since January 2018, but its scope is broader, extending upstream to polysilicon, ingots and wafers rather than only cells and modules. It also provides tariff relief for companies committing to build or expand US production facilities, effectively linking import access to domestic capital expenditure.

In parallel, the Commerce Department finalised substantial anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia and Laos in September 2026, with anti-dumping margins of 123.04%, 94.36% and 65.43%, respectively, and countervailing rates of up to 173.7%. The combined effect is a near-comprehensive tariff barrier that increases the cost of imported components and strengthens the relative economics of domestic supply.

Can US Solar Manufacturing Close the Cell Gap?

US module capacity has expanded rapidly to 69.9 GW, while cell production stood at only 3.2 GW in mid-2026, leaving US-made panels dependent on imported cells. This bottleneck is now being addressed at scale.

In June 2026, Qcells began manufacturing solar cells at Cartersville, Georgia, the first US factory to integrate ingot, wafer, cell and module production. At full production, expected in Q3 2026, the site will add 3.3 GW each of ingot, wafer and cell capacity and 3.5 GW of module capacity, taking Qcells' Georgia module output to 8.6 GW annually. It also enables customers to pursue the 10% domestic content bonus under the ITC.

In April 2026, Suniva announced an investment of more than USD 350 million in a 4.5 GW cell factory in Laurens, South Carolina, scheduled to begin operations in Q2 2027. Combined with its Norcross, Georgia plant, Suniva's domestic cell capacity will exceed 5.5 GW, and the company subsequently closed a USD 835 million capital raise. In September 2026, 22 US manufacturers were included in the first domestic ratings pyramid, signalling that buyers and lenders are increasingly differentiating domestic suppliers based on production and financial strength.

Data Centre Offtake - Who Is Buying US Solar Now?

Hyperscale technology companies are reshaping demand. At the Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas, Cypress Creek Renewables broke ground in 2026 on the first two phases, combining 1,600 MW of solar with 1,900 MW of battery storage at a cost of USD 3.5 billion under a 20-year Google offtake agreement. A third phase would expand the project to 2,500 MW of solar and 2,900 MW of storage. Most components were sourced domestically, including First Solar modules, Nextpower racking and US Steel coil processed in Arkansas.

Transaction activity points in the same direction. On 29 September 2026, Exus Renewables North America acquired approximately 715 MW of solar projects in Wisconsin and Louisiana from ibV Energy Partners, targeting data centre customers. Credit-driven deployment and corporate procurement are now progressing in parallel, with data centre load providing a durable demand floor beneath the policy cycle.

Solar-Plus-Storage M&A Heats Up as AI Demand Reshapes Deal Flow 

• Enel Green Power North America - 270 MW solar portfolio - Enel Green Power North America agreed in 2026 to acquire a 270 MW operating solar portfolio across Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina for approximately USD 140 million, according to Mercom Capital.

• Otovo - SunSystem Technology - Otovo completed the USD 1.3 million acquisition of SunSystem Technology in July 2026, expanding its service platform to approximately 30% of the United States.

• Chrysalis Renewables - US solar projects - Morrison-backed Chrysalis Renewables acquired two US solar projects through a partnership with Hanwha, adding to consolidation activity in the US solar project market.

• Nextpower - Zimmermann PV-Steel Group - Nextpower agreed to acquire Zimmermann PV-Steel Group to strengthen its position in solar mounting and steel products, extending M&A activity beyond project ownership into the solar equipment supply chain.

• T1 Energy - KORE Power - T1 Energy agreed in June 2026 to acquire KORE Power for approximately USD 32 million, gaining utility-scale battery storage engineering capabilities and access to AI data centre infrastructure markets.

• Jupiter Power - BESS financing - On 16 September 2026, Jupiter Power announced USD 1.4 billion in financing, closed between April and July, supporting 10 US BESS projects totalling 3,600 MWh.

Storage is emerging as a major layer of solar-plus-storage deal flow, with US battery installations reaching 9.7 GWh in Q1 2026 and a record 20.2 GWh in Q2, while the American Clean Power Association reported 18.9 GWh using a different methodology. 

How Does the US Fit Into the Global Solar Photovoltaic Market?

The United States remains the world's third-largest solar market. Global additions reached approximately 690 GW in 2025, up 15% year on year, taking cumulative capacity to 2.96 TW, according to the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme. China installed 415 GW, representing 60% of global additions, followed by India at 54 GW and the United States at 43 GW, while the European Union added 68 GW collectively.

Makreo Research estimates global cumulative solar PV capacity at approximately 2.9 to 3 TW in 2025, following Asia Pacific's addition of around 430 GW in 2024. Revenue growth is expected to be slightly above 8% in 2025, moderated by external pressures rather than weaker underlying demand, while China controls more than 80% of the global solar PV supply chain.

The US market is distinctive in two respects. It is the most policy-elastic major market, with the interaction between the safe-harboured pipeline and post-2027 economics determining whether annual additions remain at the current run rate or decline sharply. It is also the clearest example of industrial policy reshaping trade flows, as tariff barriers, domestic content incentives and security-based procurement rules encourage manufacturing to move onshore.

Where the US Solar PV Market Is Heading to 2030

Makreo Research expects the US solar PV market to follow a compressed, policy-driven trajectory rather than a smooth growth curve through 2030. Four factors underpin this view. First, installations will remain elevated through 2028 as the safe-harboured pipeline converts into placed-in-service capacity; the 11.4 GW quarter represents the beginning of this conversion rather than its peak. Second, a demand air pocket is probable in 2029 and 2030 unless new federal or state mechanisms emerge, as the post-deadline cohort faces either accelerated timelines or unsubsidised economics alongside rising domestic module costs. Third, corporate procurement, led by data centre demand, will increasingly establish the floor for utility-scale deployment and partly decouple the market from the federal incentive cycle. Fourth, manufacturing value will migrate upstream from modules towards cells, wafers and polysilicon, where tariff protection and Section 232 minimum import prices provide durable pricing support for domestic producers.

The investment implications are specific. Cell and wafer capacity represents the scarcest and most protected layer of the US value chain, inverter and power electronics localisation is an emerging bottleneck with regulatory tailwinds, and storage integration is becoming standard in utility-scale procurement. For component suppliers, developers, manufacturers and investors, the period between now and the 2027 placed-in-service deadline represents the critical planning horizon.

How Makreo Research Supports Decision Making in the US Solar Market

The US solar market is moving faster than annual planning cycles. Makreo Research helps developers, EPC contractors, independent power producers, manufacturers, offtakers, utilities, investors, and policymakers turn policy and market signals into commercial decisions.

• Market sizing and forecasting covering capacity, revenue, and pricing scenarios under different tariff and tax credit outcomes

• Segment-level demand analysis across utility-scale, commercial, community, and residential demand, including solar-plus-storage

• Competitive benchmarking of manufacturer, developer, and EPC positioning, capacity, and cost structures

• Consumer and demand assessment covering offtaker requirements across data centres, utilities, and industrial buyers

• Geographic opportunity assessment including state-level and ISO-level screening, interconnection, and permitting risk

• Investment and expansion analysis covering factory siting, onshoring programme eligibility, and acquisition screening

• Partnership and joint venture assessment evaluating supply, offtake, and technology partnership opportunities

• Primary research and market surveys with developers, procurement heads, utilities, and investors

Makreo Research has published the Global Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market and Forecast to 2030, covering market sizing, segmentation, and forecasts across regions and technologies, alongside dedicated studies of the China, India, and Asia-Pacific solar PV markets. Further perspective is available through Makreo's case studies and analysis of global solar PV and solar-plus-storage deployment.

Organisations evaluating US market entry, competitive benchmarking, or demand assessment can work with Makreo Research on dedicated market entry, competitive benchmarking, or demand studies tailored to their requirements. To discuss how a custom research or market survey engagement could support your US solar strategy, Contact us at [email protected].